International Equity Flows and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns

We examined the link between international equity flows and U.S. stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous (one-month-ahead) stock returns. Our results also indicate that an investor, in real time, could have used information on the link between international equity flows and one-month-ahead stock returns to improve the performance of simple trading rules.International equity flows; predictability of stock returns; performance of trading rules; the United States

Quadratic forms and linear algebraic groups

Topics discussed at the workshop Quadratic Forms and Linear Algebraic Groups included besides the algebraic theory of quadratic and Hermitian forms and their Witt groups several aspects of the theory of linear algebraic groups and homogeneous varieties, as well as some arithmetic aspects pertaining to the theory of quadratic forms over function fields over local fields

Local-global principles for Galois cohomology

This paper proves local-global principles for Galois cohomology groups over function fields $F$ of curves that are defined over a complete discretely valued field. We show in particular that such principles hold for $H^n(F, Z/mZ(n-1))$, for all $n>1$. This is motivated by work of Kato and others, where such principles were shown in related cases for $n=3$. Using our results in combination with cohomological invariants, we obtain local-global principles for torsors and related algebraic structures over $F$. Our arguments rely on ideas from patching as well as the Bloch-Kato conjecture.Comment: 32 pages. Some changes of notation. Statement of Lemma 2.4.4 corrected. Lemma 3.3.2 strengthened and made a proposition. Some proofs modified to fix or clarify specific points or to streamline the presentatio

Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante stock-return predictability. 2) The performance of an investor who had to rely on noisy real-time macroeconomic data would have been comparable to the performance of an investor who had access to revised macroeconomic data. 3) In real time, it is important for an investor to know which real-time variable to use for predicting stock returns. --Ex ante predictability of stock returns,real-time macroeconomic data,performance of investment strategies,Germany

Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time

We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is that the statistical and economic value of volatility forecasts based on real-time data is comparable to the value of forecasts based on revised macroeconomic data. --Forecasting stock market volatility,Real-time macroeconomic data,Evaluation of forecasting accuracy

Avaliação da colonização aeróbica e anaeróbica facultativa do cólon de ratos wistar após tratamento com omeprazol

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Curso de Medicina. Dapartamento de Clínica Cirúrgica

The Fed-Strategy: Successful but out-of-date?

Opinion about the American monetary policy of the past 10-15 years is divided. On the one hand several economists are convinced that the wise policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has mainly contributed to the exceptional performance of the US economy in the 1990s. This performance has been especially great in the second half of the 1990s with real growth rates of more than 3.5 % and low inflation rates of about 2 %. This is why some economists call the 1990s the Fabulous Decade. On the other hand the strategy of the Fed is strongly criticized. While other central banks like the Bank of England or the European Central Bank (ECB) have made intensive efforts to present the general public with a clear and comprehensible strategy the Fed is according to these critics lacking such a clear framework. Instead of a well-articulated strategy the Fed has its Magician Greenspan. Some economists have meanwhile described the Fed as one of the most opaque and unclear central banks (among the most prominent ones). This paper will attempt to examine if these reproaches against the Fed-Strategy are justified and if the Fed should revise its policy concept. The paper firstly describes the current framework of the Fed, especially its targets and its operational procedure and shows possible deficits. The result of this theoretical analysis suggests in fact that the Feds behavior is neither rule-orientated nor transparent. But as can be shown in the second part of the paper this academic and critical view of the Fed policy contradicts the markets opinion about the Fed policy. From the markets perspective the Fed-Strategy seems to be highly transparent and credible. The paper proceeds as follows: The second section touches briefly on the issue as to why it might be important for a central bank to present a clear monetary policy strategy. Section 3 takes a close look at the targets of the Fed. Section 4 describes the current procedure of the Fed in monetary policy and tries to assign the Fed-Strategy to a common framework such as Inflation Targeting or the Taylor-Rule. Section 5 looks at the Fed-Strategy from the markets perspective, especially the markets judgment about the credibility and transparency of the Fed as being of central interest. --